Climate Analysis

Across the country, Americans are beginning to feel the direct impacts of the climate crisis on their lives, work, health, and property. This has led many from “bellwether” regions like the Gulf Coast, parts of California, and the Pacific Northwest to reconsider the long-term viability of these geographies to sustainably support large populations and functional economies. While adaptation efforts in the most climate-impacted regions are worthy and important, these residents are increasingly seeking alternate locations perceived to be better suited to withstand and adapt to the increasing frequency and severity of climate shocks. Appalachia also finds itself facing the immediate effects of the climate crisis, especially with the increased regularity and unprecedented intensity of flooding across the region (USGCRP, 2018), including recent historic rainfall events in Eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, and Western North Carolina. Despite increased rates of severe flooding and other climate-related challenges, the Appalachian region is relatively well-poised for climate change-linked in-migration in the coming decades.

Analysis of available data and literature reveals that climate change concerns are already influencing where many Americans are choosing to live (Allen, 2022). Significantly, much of the available data and information point toward Central Appalachia as a likely important hub for in-migration and climate-adaptive development. However, there is a noticeable lack of region-specific research in this field, especially concerning the role of geographies in greater Appalachia. We recommend development of extensive and publicly available research from federal agencies, as well as academic and private institutions on the topic of internal US migration as a consequence of climate change, with specific attention paid to states and communities inside Appalachia as possible climate receiver places.

To date, popular and academic discourse on the topic has focused heavily on the Great Lakes region and the post-industrial cities of the ‘Rust Belt’ as prospective havens for climate migration. Much of the existing literature also reflects an urban-centric analysis for where and how climate migration will occur. However, anecdotal and quantitative data of migratory trends during the COVID-19 pandemic challenge a solely urban centric analysis (Riordan, 2022). Rural areas seem to represent stability in the popular consciousness, and real estate professionals in Appalachia report that buyers from outside the area have begun seeking properties in the region as a hedge against climate disruptions even before the COVID-19 pandemic began (Walton, 2020). Meanwhile, the geostrategic importance of the region’s natural and ecological assets in the face of the climate crisis present significant and complex opportunities for future generations. Invest Appalachia (IA) and its regional partners believe that Central Appalachia—and the rest of the 13-state Appalachian region—has a vital role to play in national climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. With this report, Invest Appalachia aims to shed light on the key role the region can and must play in safeguarding American economic development, safety, and security through climate adaptation and mitigation, while seeking to re-center rural communities as viable and necessary hubs for forward-looking investment in this era of climate crisis. Furthermore, this report seeks to establish a baseline analysis of a climate-impacted future for the region that can be broadly shared and understood, so that we can collectively develop the forward-looking tools and resources we need in the present in order to build equitable markets, increase resilience, and safeguard our future.